The Changing Face of Oxford County

How about this for an astute observation: Oxford County is changing. With that blatantly obvious fact on the table, let's look at some of the impact these changes will have on our lives and livelihoods.

One of the largest single events in Woodstock's history was the announcement by Toyota that their newest Canadian assembly plant will locate here. The economic impact of this, scaled according to our realities, will be enormous. While the 1,300 direct manufacturing jobs are significant, the multiplier effect will make that job number closer to 3 or 4 thousand. By simple rules of economics, the regional money supply will increase dramatically as the demand for goods and services follows on the heels of this great earning power.

On the business front, companies complimentary to the automotive industry will look to locate around Woodstock. Proximity is a competitive advantage in a “just-in-time” environment, and spiraling transportation costs can certainly shrink a company's sphere of feasible locations. Woodstock and Oxford have done a fine job of compiling industrial development land, but more will be needed. Land owners close to Woodstock will be the beneficiaries.

With the influx of high paying automotive supply companies, skilled labour will become an issue for our existing industries. Pay scales all around the region will feel some upward pressure, and skilled people may not be available at any price. This bodes well for our young people who have the aptitude for the skilled trades. Industry and local government will need to continue to expand their training initiatives to meet the demand.

Land is becoming a very attractive commodity in our region. Right now land speculation is at a feverish pace. Land plots in Oxford with residential or industrial development potential are being snapped up and resold, with each transaction raising the bar. Competition for development land will continue to increase, while competition in the building industry will also escalate as the developers and trades people flock towards the action. Speculation fever will eventually subside because the actual pace of development always lags the prophecies. Regardless of these short term aberrations, there will be a residential and industrial boom here for some years to come.

It appears agricultural land will continue to hold its value. Within the agriculture industry established farmers are fueling the demand for land. Nutrient management legislation, and the simple doctrine of economies of scale, ensures land will not soon be out of fashion. Outside the ag sector, however, Bay Street investors, over exposed to the financial markets, now see Southern Ontario farm land as a solid long term hold. The normal demand for land makes this asset class a strong hedge against inflation, and may even provide some speculative upside. Add to this the compounding effect of the outside demand, and farmers will find expansion expensive. Unfortunately, commodity prices will not likely keep pace. Here in the Food Basket of Canada we will face some challenges as the colour of our rural landscape changes to an urban hue.

Faced with an increasing residential and industrial population, Oxford County's infrastructure will be capacity challenged. Roadways, sewage systems, water sources, policing, health care, emergency services; all will be hard pressed to keep up with the demand that our growth will bring. Residents and business owners will need to be patient as our representatives and municipal employees evolve along the path to urbanization. As it is with any enterprise, cash-flowing growth can be a taxing experience. Good fiscal management will be important.

Undoubtedly, our way of life in Oxford will change now that we are on the radar scope of the big players. Woodstock will cross the boundary between large town and small city. The rural hamlets and villages of Oxford will meet new people with new ideas, who will bring new enthusiasm with them. We will be more crowded and it will be more expensive to live here. But we will, hopefully, have more opportunity to prosper. “May you live in interesting times” is the well-wishers' call that is coming true for the people of Oxford.

Brent VanParys

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